Edges — ProphetX vs model — 2026-06-24
6 actionable · 75 ProphetX strikeout lines · commission 2% · snapshot 2026-06-24 23:06
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Model P
Fair odds
Edge
EV
¼-Kelly
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Snapshot at push time
Fair is the model's no-vig price (same as Predictions — from P(K>line), not the mean). Edge = model prob − ProphetX implied prob, at 2% commission. Green rows clear the actionable bar (≥4% edge, ≥6% on overs). These prices are frozen at push time — use the calculator above for current odds.
PitcherTeamOppTime (ET) BetEdge %EV %ProphetXFair ¼-Kelly %Flags
Eury PérezMIATEX12:10 PM ET O4.5 21.1% 47.6% +134-176 9.06%
Shohei OhtaniLADMIN7:40 PM ET U6.5 16.1% 26.8% -136-280 9.3%
Joe RyanMINLAD7:40 PM ET O7.5 8.6% 30.4% +275+183 2.82%
JP SearsSDATL8:40 PM ET O5.5 7.1% 26.1% +295+209 2.25%
JP SearsSDATL8:40 PM ET O3.5 6.8% 10.4% -148-198 3.93%
Gage JumpATHSF9:45 PM ET U4.5 5.9% 14.2% +164+128 2.21% LOW
Tyler MahleSFATH9:45 PM ET O4.5 5.8% 11.6% +124-102 2.4% OVER_THIN
Joe RyanMINLAD7:40 PM ET O5.5 3.5% 5.0% -148-172 1.89% OVER_THIN
Trey YesavageTORHOU7:07 PM ET U5.5 3.1% 5.2% +106-107 1.26%
Gage JumpATHSF9:45 PM ET U5.5 1.6% 1.9% -136-145 0.66% LOW
Matthew LiberatoreSTLAZ7:45 PM ET O3.5 0.2% -0.6% +123+122 0.0% OVER_THIN
Rhett LowderCINMIL7:10 PM ET U4.5 -0.4% -1.6% -144-141 0.0%
Mike BurrowsHOUTOR7:07 PM ET O3.5 -0.9% -2.4% -146-140 0.0% OVER_THIN
Martín PérezATLSD8:40 PM ET U4.5 -1.0% -2.4% -170-163 0.0%
Mike BurrowsHOUTOR7:07 PM ET U3.5 -1.1% -3.8% +134+140 0.0%
Rhett LowderCINMIL7:10 PM ET O4.5 -2.6% -7.0% +127+141 0.0% OVER_THIN
Matthew LiberatoreSTLAZ7:45 PM ET U3.5 -3.7% -7.1% -142-122 0.0%
Gage JumpATHSF9:45 PM ET O5.5 -4.7% -11.3% +120+145 0.0% LOWOVER_THIN
Martín PérezATLSD8:40 PM ET O4.5 -4.7% -11.9% +134+163 0.0% OVER_THIN
Joe RyanMINLAD7:40 PM ET U5.5 -4.8% -12.7% +140+172 0.0%
Trey YesavageTORHOU7:07 PM ET O5.5 -6.8% -13.1% -123+107 0.0% OVER_THIN
Rhett LowderCINMIL7:10 PM ET O3.5 -9.3% -13.9% -225-150 0.0% OVER_THIN
JP SearsSDATL8:40 PM ET U5.5 -10.4% -13.7% -355-209 0.0%
Gage JumpATHSF9:45 PM ET O4.5 -10.5% -16.3% -200-128 0.0% LOWOVER_THIN
Tyler MahleSFATH9:45 PM ET U4.5 -10.7% -18.4% -152+102 0.0%
JP SearsSDATL8:40 PM ET U3.5 -12.7% -28.3% +116+198 0.0%
Joe RyanMINLAD7:40 PM ET U7.5 -15.5% -19.6% -405-183 0.0%
Shohei OhtaniLADMIN7:40 PM ET O6.5 -20.2% -44.1% +115+280 0.0% OVER_THIN
Eury PérezMIATEX12:10 PM ET U4.5 -26.8% -42.9% -170+176 0.0%